Harry Chen Thinks Aloud

Until it stops going up. Based on my understanding, the uptrend of oil price is mainly caused by speculative trading on the market.

If you’re looking for evidence oil’s surge is the result of a speculative bubble, look at the astronomical trading statistics on energy exchanges. Bill Stone, PNC’s chief investment strategist, notes today that the average daily trading volume in energy futures so far this year is $138.3 billion. That’s a 61.6% increase from 2007 and a 3,000% increase from 1997.

I would note that much of this increase might be the result of technology rather than evidence of a bubble: Sophisticated computerized trading systems make it much easier to try to squeeze out extra profits by buying and selling contracts rapidly throughout the day.

What can we do? Nothing. Just sit tight until the price comes down.

Except the commodities, everything else looks cheap. Given that the economy is kind of under the weather, I think it’s an excellent time to invest.

Here is my logic: the future of our economy can only either go up or go down. It has only two possible outcomes. If it goes up, then start investing today will give you a better return in the future. If it goes down, your money in the bank probably won’t worth much anyway — the purchasing power of your savings would be reduced due to inflation.

When everyone is scared, it’s time to be greedy.

According to the data published by the US National Oceanic and Atomspheric Administration (NOAA), the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has reached a record high.

Scientists at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii say that CO2 levels in the atmosphere now stand at 387 parts per million (ppm), up almost 40% since the industrial revolution and the highest for at least the last 650,000 years.

The worst part of the news, though is expected, is that the situation is worse than scientists have previously predicated. The Earth is losing its natural ability to soak up CO2 each year.

Climate models assume that about half our future emissions will be re-absorbed by forests and oceans, but the new figures confirm this may be too optimistic. If more of our carbon pollution stays in the atmosphere, it means emissions will have to be cut by more than currently projected to prevent dangerous levels of global warming.

Source: World CO2 levels at record high, scientists warn, guardian.co.uk

I attended the SocialDevCamp East today. It was a lot of fun and very rewarding. The event was kind of like a conference, but unlike a typical research conference it didn’t have any specific agenda or planned breakout sessions. I have attended many planned research conferences in the past, but this bar camp (bec it has free beer after 4pm) was definitely a unique experience. I would recommend future bar camps to anyone who is interested in technology.

My lessons learned from this event are as follows. First, the start-up culture on the East Coast is very different from which of the West Coast. On the East Coast, it’s difficult to find either VCs or angel investors to fund start-ups that don’t a sustainable revenue stream. Second, there is a large pool of talents on the East Coast (in the DC/MD/VA area) that is not currently being utilized to create social web and social media innovations. Third, it’s possible to get non-AI developers to be excited about the Semantic Web.

By chance, I hosted a session on the Social Web + the Semantic Web. My original intent was to get people to talk about Semantic Web technologies and businesses that are crucial to the success of Social Web applications. But, it turned out that the audiences were very interested to explore the possibility of using Semantic Web technologies as differentiators to help them to stand out in the fast-change social media world. If you missed the discussion, you can find our discussion topics in this Twitter stream. Also you can find materials covered in my Social Web + Semantic Web slides.

I’m convinced that Twitter is useful (sometimes). While I was attending the conference, I sent my wife the Twitter stream of the SocialDevCamp (#SocialDevCamp). She was able to follow my session and see photos of me in an almost real-time experience.

Some people are crazy about Twitter. I don’t. I joined Twitter when it first came out. After few weeks, my enthusiasm for micro-blogging has gone to nil.

Recently I saw Twitter discussions in few different blog posts. I wonder if I should start using Twitter again? After some thinking, my conclusion that is that it’s better for me to stay away from Twitter.

Why I gave up on Twitter:

1. Don’t want to tell the world what’s on my mind too often.
2. Posting too much Twitter messages can gave people (esp. my boss) a false impression about me being a slacker.
3. Posting Twitter messages can’t advance my writing skill.
4. Don’t feel comfortable with strangers following me on Twitter.
5. I’m already too occupied with other social media (Facebook, my blogs and gnizr etc.)

Do you share my experience? Or are you a Twitter lover and have a different perspective?

Let me know.

The legal immigration system of the United States is extremely complex. The typical process for obtaining a Green Card (i.e., becoming a Permanent US Resident) is lengthy and sometimes adventurous. If you plan to go through this process, hire a lawyer and don’t try DIY.

Here is a story from the law offices of Carl Shusterman.

After marrying a foreigner, instead of hiring a lawyer, Mr D. who is a US citizen tried to applied a Green Card for his wife. With an everything DIY mentality, he followed every steps of the application. Close to the end, the US Embassy notified his wife that she would be barred from entering the US for 10 years. The reason was because his wife had studies in the US and stayed in the country after her student visa was expired.

Now what? It turned out that the wife could file for a waiver if she can prove that a 10-years separation from her husband can cause the couple to suffer “extreme hardship”. Sounds easy? Not really.

After filling for a waiver, they received a letter from the government:

… the applicant’s situation, based on the record, is typical to (sic) individuals separated as a result of deportation or exclusion and does not rise to the level of extreme hardship.

It’s time to hire a lawyer. At the end, the lawyer solved the problem for the couples using some legal maneuver. The wife got her visa to enter the US and joined her husband.

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